iur~ <br />i- <br />Section 7 <br />True market estimate <br />• <br />Methodology <br />This portion of the Passenger Demand Analysis is devoted to estimating the total number of trips <br />generated by the population in the airport catchment area. Based on the results of this Passenger <br />Demand Analysis, Eugene Airport is serving an estimated 52.9 percent of the air travelers in the airport <br />catchment area. In order to estimate the size of the total market and the number of passengers traveling <br />to each destination, MIDT data is mathematically combined with U.S. DOT airline report information. <br />Domestic airlines report traffic statistics to the U.S. DOT on a quarterly basis. Passenger data in these <br />'~ quarterly airline reports is airport specific, so by itself does not quantify the total size of an air service <br />market. However, by combining MIDT information with passenger data contained in the U.S. DOT airline <br />reports, an estimate of the total air travel market can be calculated. Additionally, passenger estimates <br />~W' can be computed for each destination. <br />True market <br />Table 7.1 examines the true market potential of the top 10 catchment area destinations. For the top 10 <br />domestic destinations, 485,263 annual origin and destination passengers are estimated. Appendix A <br />i <br />provides an estimate of the true market for the top 50 destinations for Eugene Airport. The local airport <br />;_;, catchment area generates approximately 1,295,943 origin and destination passengers per year. <br />Compared to the findings of the 2004 Passenger Demand Analysis, the true market grew by 103,426 <br />-' origin and destination passengers. The growth in the true market was spurred by the continued growth of <br />~ the Eugene Airport catchment area population, better access east through the initiation of Salt Lake City <br />~~' service, and general improvement of the economy. <br />Table 7.1 True market estimates -top 10 markets <br />ank Airport Reported 'Leaked O&D paxs ;. Percent of <br /> O&D paxs O&D paxs generated total <br />1 San Francisco, CA 78,638• ~~ .15,999 94,637 ~~~~~7.3 <br />2 Los Angeles, CA 59,287 28,572 87,859 ` ~ 6.8 <br />3 Denver, CO 30;719 20,342 51,061 ~~~ 3.g <br />4 Las Vegas. NV 29;537 20,905 ~ 50,442 ~ 3.g <br />5 Phoenix. AZ 33;064 17,230 50,294 ~3.9 <br /> San Diego, CA 22,379 13,728 36,108 ' 2.8 <br /> <br />~ <br />Seattle,~Tacoma. NlA <br />28,864 <br />2,867 _ <br />31,730 _.n..,..~..~,...~ <br />- 2.4 <br />b Chicago O'Hare. IL 15,793 15,334 31,127: ~ 2.4 <br />9 Orange County, CA 16.537 ~~ 11,780 28,317 2.2 <br />10 Honolulu, HI 6,342 17,346 23,687 w~ ~1.8 <br /> <br />Total of above <br />321,181" <br />164,102 <br />485,263 _ <br />X37.4 <br />Total of all markets 685,340 610,603 1,295,943 <br />1.00.0 <br />Source: Data Base Products, Inc. ; EUG records; _ <br />MIDT survey data -calendar year 2004 <br />However, even if local air service were to improve significantly, it is not reasonable to expect that all of <br />these air travelers would use Eugene Airport. The proximity of Portland International Airport will continue <br />to draw air travelers from the Eugene Airport catchment area. Estimating the number of passengers that <br />would use the local airport if air service improvements or better airport awareness in the Eugene market <br />occurs are topics of further study. <br />/~ EtiGF.NE <br />•~ AIRPORT <br />Page 29 <br />