|
iur~
<br />i-
<br />Section 7
<br />True market estimate
<br />•
<br />Methodology
<br />This portion of the Passenger Demand Analysis is devoted to estimating the total number of trips
<br />generated by the population in the airport catchment area. Based on the results of this Passenger
<br />Demand Analysis, Eugene Airport is serving an estimated 52.9 percent of the air travelers in the airport
<br />catchment area. In order to estimate the size of the total market and the number of passengers traveling
<br />to each destination, MIDT data is mathematically combined with U.S. DOT airline report information.
<br />Domestic airlines report traffic statistics to the U.S. DOT on a quarterly basis. Passenger data in these
<br />'~ quarterly airline reports is airport specific, so by itself does not quantify the total size of an air service
<br />market. However, by combining MIDT information with passenger data contained in the U.S. DOT airline
<br />reports, an estimate of the total air travel market can be calculated. Additionally, passenger estimates
<br />~W' can be computed for each destination.
<br />True market
<br />Table 7.1 examines the true market potential of the top 10 catchment area destinations. For the top 10
<br />domestic destinations, 485,263 annual origin and destination passengers are estimated. Appendix A
<br />i
<br />provides an estimate of the true market for the top 50 destinations for Eugene Airport. The local airport
<br />;_;, catchment area generates approximately 1,295,943 origin and destination passengers per year.
<br />Compared to the findings of the 2004 Passenger Demand Analysis, the true market grew by 103,426
<br />-' origin and destination passengers. The growth in the true market was spurred by the continued growth of
<br />~ the Eugene Airport catchment area population, better access east through the initiation of Salt Lake City
<br />~~' service, and general improvement of the economy.
<br />Table 7.1 True market estimates -top 10 markets
<br />ank Airport Reported 'Leaked O&D paxs ;. Percent of
<br /> O&D paxs O&D paxs generated total
<br />1 San Francisco, CA 78,638• ~~ .15,999 94,637 ~~~~~7.3
<br />2 Los Angeles, CA 59,287 28,572 87,859 ` ~ 6.8
<br />3 Denver, CO 30;719 20,342 51,061 ~~~ 3.g
<br />4 Las Vegas. NV 29;537 20,905 ~ 50,442 ~ 3.g
<br />5 Phoenix. AZ 33;064 17,230 50,294 ~3.9
<br /> San Diego, CA 22,379 13,728 36,108 ' 2.8
<br />
<br />~
<br />Seattle,~Tacoma. NlA
<br />28,864
<br />2,867 _
<br />31,730 _.n..,..~..~,...~
<br />- 2.4
<br />b Chicago O'Hare. IL 15,793 15,334 31,127: ~ 2.4
<br />9 Orange County, CA 16.537 ~~ 11,780 28,317 2.2
<br />10 Honolulu, HI 6,342 17,346 23,687 w~ ~1.8
<br />
<br />Total of above
<br />321,181"
<br />164,102
<br />485,263 _
<br />X37.4
<br />Total of all markets 685,340 610,603 1,295,943
<br />1.00.0
<br />Source: Data Base Products, Inc. ; EUG records; _
<br />MIDT survey data -calendar year 2004
<br />However, even if local air service were to improve significantly, it is not reasonable to expect that all of
<br />these air travelers would use Eugene Airport. The proximity of Portland International Airport will continue
<br />to draw air travelers from the Eugene Airport catchment area. Estimating the number of passengers that
<br />would use the local airport if air service improvements or better airport awareness in the Eugene market
<br />occurs are topics of further study.
<br />/~ EtiGF.NE
<br />•~ AIRPORT
<br />Page 29
<br />
|