|
Section 7
<br />True market estimate
<br />Retention rate sensitivity
<br />On the previous page and in Appendix A, the true market estimate assumed retention of 100.0 percent.
<br />Given the level of air service and fares at Portland International Airport, it is logical that Eugene Airport
<br />will not retain 100.0 percent of its catchment area market. Table 7.2 calculates the estimated passengers
<br />given incremental increases in the retention rate. In addition, passengers are estimated at each increase
<br />for the top 25 markets given varying degrees of retention.
<br />With an increase of 10.0 percent to the current retention rate of 52.9 percent, origin and destination
<br />passengers would increase by 129,594 passengers annually. On amarket-by-market basis, origin and
<br />destination passengers to the number one survey destination, San Francisco, could increase by 9,464
<br />passengers annually with an increase in retention of 10.0 percent to 93.1 percent.
<br />Table 7.2 Retention rate se nsitivity ~
<br />Rank Airport O&D
<br />Current ~ .~.., ,~..,.",,,
<br />Est. pax wrth retent
<br />n ~
<br />
<br />
<br />1
<br />
<br />San Francisco, CA
<br />'passengers
<br />
<br />78
<br />63
<br />retention %
<br />5.0% io
<br />of..
<br />10.0% 1.5.0%o~
<br />~
<br />2
<br />~
<br />
<br />~ `
<br />
<br />2
<br />Los Angeles, CA ,
<br />8
<br />59
<br />287 83.1 83,370
<br />- 88,10
<br />-'
<br />'~
<br />,,~ '92,834
<br />
<br />~~ Denver
<br />CO , 67.5 63,680 68,073 72
<br />466
<br />
<br />~ .
<br />Las Vegas, NV 30,719
<br />29
<br />537 60.2 33,272 ,
<br />35,82.5 38,
<br />378
<br />~
<br />5 Phoenix, AZ , 58.6 32,059 _
<br />34,581 37
<br />103' ~
<br />
<br />6
<br />San Dr~go
<br />CA 33,064
<br />65.7
<br />35,579 ,
<br />mM~.
<br />38,094r 40
<br />608~
<br />
<br />~
<br />8 ,
<br />Seattle .`Tacoma, WA 22,379
<br />28,864 62.0
<br />
<br />91
<br />0 24,185
<br />
<br />30
<br />450 ~,
<br />25,990r 27,795
<br />7
<br />~""
<br />
<br />Chicago O'Hare, IL
<br />15 793 . , 31
<br />g
<br />~7
<br />'
<br />
<br />Orange County, CA
<br />
<br />16
<br />537 50.7
<br />- 17,349 "" '~""`""r
<br />18,906 20,4621
<br />~'~~ ~""
<br />
<br />10
<br />Honolulu, HI , 58.4 17,953 ""~"`~
<br />19,3691 20
<br />785
<br />
<br />
<br />11
<br />
<br />San Jose, CA 6,342 26.8 7,526` ,
<br />.~,..~, ~",._,~~
<br />8,710 9,8951
<br />`
<br />
<br />
<br />12
<br />
<br />Minneapolis
<br />MN 5,699
<br />25.1
<br />6,836
<br />..~.,~.~ .~.,,~
<br />7,9731 9 11
<br />
<br />1
<br />
<br />13 .
<br />Anchorage, AK 8, 034
<br />
<br />881
<br />7
<br />44.0
<br />8,947 -
<br />9 86110 774
<br />.,~v
<br />~
<br />~
<br />14 Salt Lake City, UT
<br />- ,
<br />10
<br />094 43.3 8,791 ,
<br />~"~....,
<br />9 701 ~ 10,6111
<br />
<br />15
<br />New York Newark. NJ ;
<br />7
<br />7 55.6 11,001 11,9 8 .12,81
<br />
<br />
<br />16
<br />
<br />Oakland, CA ;
<br />18
<br />42.8
<br />8,621
<br />9523 10
<br />426
<br />
<br />~ t
<br />
<br />17
<br />Kahului. HI 4,476 25.2 5,364 ,
<br />~." """~~",~"""~
<br />6252 7
<br />140
<br />18 Orlando
<br />FL 4,741 27.4 5,607. ,
<br />6,472 7
<br />338
<br />19 .
<br />Ontario, CA 6,913 42.9 7,719 ,
<br />8,525~~ 9
<br />3311
<br />
<br />~~
<br />Dallas%Ft Worth
<br />TX 6,913 46.1 7,662, ,
<br />8,411. ~ :9
<br />160
<br />
<br />
<br />21 ,
<br />
<br />Baltimore, N1D 6,984
<br />
<br />
<br />5
<br />557
<br />48.3
<br />7,707 ,
<br />.,~ . '. """"`".
<br />8,4311 9,1541
<br />
<br />22
<br />Washington Clulles, DC ,
<br />7
<br />932 _ 39.8 6,254 6,951 7,6481
<br />
<br />~~ ~
<br />fp
<br />23 Boston, MA ,
<br />7
<br />484 60.3
<br />57 8,590 __9,248
<br />9906
<br />"
<br />
<br />24
<br />Atlanta
<br />GA , .8 8,131 8 778;
<br />9
<br />425
<br />
<br />25 ,
<br />Kauai Island. HI 5,516
<br />~
<br />2
<br />559
<br />48.7
<br />6,082: ,
<br />6,649'.7,216
<br />~~
<br />~
<br />
<br />Total
<br />of above ,
<br />419
<br />660 23.5 3,104 3 6491
<br />4 193
<br />~
<br />Total of all markets , 58.0 455,839 491,7121 52
<br />
<br />Source 685,340 52.9 750,137 814,934 879 731
<br />: Data Base Products, Inc.; EUG records; MIDT surve
<br />d
<br />t
<br />'
<br /> y
<br />a
<br />a -cale ndar year 20 04
<br />
<br />
|