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compares the December 2007 forecast to the the persistent impact the fee increases have <br /> June 2008 and the current forecast through had on demand for DMV services. we <br /> calendar year 2008 for issuance of a photo ID expected demand to be reduced for a few <br /> Card. The values are seasonally adjusted, quarters after implementation of the fee <br /> removing the typical ups and downs that are increases, and then once individuals became <br /> common in the DMV data series over each accustomed to the new fees they would adjust <br /> <br /> year. The December 2007 forecast began in their budgets to accommodate the increased <br /> July of 2007, the 2008 forecast began in April fees and demand would adjust upwards. <br /> of 2008, and the December 2008 forecast while this has been true for some <br /> begins in October 2008. Notice that in transactions, others have shown a significant <br /> January of 2008 there is a big spike in decrease related to the fee increases beyond <br /> issuances followed by a rapid drop. This the first several quarters. In some cases, the <br /> reflects the rush to obtain an ID Card prior to fee increases have had a lasting impact on <br /> <br /> the temporary rule taking effect and the transactions. This effect is seen most notably <br /> subsequent drop once the rule was in place. in some of the title transactions and <br /> In July of 2008 there is another drop in commercial licenses. It may well be, for <br /> issuance corresponding to implementation of instance, that some individuals have had <br /> SB 1080. The combined result of the secondary vehicles or commercial licenses <br /> <br /> temporary rule and implementation of SB that were not being used, and therefore they <br /> 1080 has led to a 30 percent decline in ID decided it is not worth paying the increased <br /> Card issuances, a significant impact. fee for something that they are unlikely to <br /> need in the near future. <br /> Figure 6: Original ID Card Transactions <br /> The reduced volume of transactions generally <br /> 7,5°°- occurs where the percent changes in fees are <br /> 7,oo0- the greatest, or where the fees represent a <br /> 0 6,500- larger share of the value of the vehicle. As we <br /> 6,000 - move further away from 2004, the fee change <br /> 5,500- ~ m impact tends to diminish or becomes difficult <br /> 0 5,000_ to discern from other impacts in the models. <br /> r <br /> 4,500- Overall, demographic and economic changes, <br /> 4'oo0- combined with legislative impacts, explain <br /> 3, 500 <br /> Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 most of the Var1at10n In total DMV <br /> Original ID Card Transactions (Dec. 07 forecast) transactions over tlme. Total DMV <br /> Original ID Card Transactions (June 08 Forecast) transactions increased in FY08 and are <br /> Original ID Card Transactions (Dec. 08 forecast) <br /> expected to decline sharply in FY09. For the <br /> remainder of the forecast horizon transactions <br /> The other legislative change that can affect an are expected to average slight growth of 1.2 <br /> individual's choice to use a DMV service is percent. However, future legislation will <br /> <br /> the price. The OTIA III legislation passed undoubtedly affect the DMV transactions <br /> during the 2003 session increased fees fora forecast and resulting revenues. <br /> number of DMV activities. How the fee <br /> increases affect Oregonians' willingness to <br /> <br /> pay for the same activities is an important <br /> consideration for future legislation. with four <br /> <br /> years of data since implementation of the <br /> OTIA III fee increases, a surprising result is <br /> 11 <br /> <br />