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HIGHWAY FUND REVENUE FORECAST <br /> Overall, the current State Highway Fund trends converge more toward the economic <br /> revenue forecast is lower than the previous and demographic trends of the state, in lieu of <br /> forecast. DMV revenues, which are driven any new revenue initiatives by the <br /> largely by demographic changes, decreased Legislature. <br /> <br /> the least from the June 2008 forecast, being <br /> reduced on average by a little over $8 million The current outlook forecasts that gross <br /> each year of the forecast period. The slowing revenues will be lower than the prior forecast. <br /> national and Oregon economies have greater For FY08 revenues were a little under $1 <br /> impacts on Motor Carrier and Motor Fuels million less than was previously forecast. For <br /> revenues. The forecast of Motor Carrier FY09 and FY10, revenues are expected to be <br /> revenues is reduced between $0 and $28 $31.3 million and $14.1 million lower than in <br /> million per year throughout the forecast the prior forecast, respectively. This sudden <br /> <br /> period. The outlook for Motor Fuels revenues drop in FY09 revenues is mainly due to the <br /> is similar but not as variant, with reductions rapidly deteriorating economy. A rebound in <br /> of $7 to $23 million from previous forecast FY10 is expected now where previously year- <br /> levels. over-year growth was expected to be more <br /> mild. On an average annual basis, this <br /> Differences between the current and prior difference translates into a 2.5 percent <br /> forecast can originate from four primary decrease from the prior forecast. The <br /> sources. First, the forecast incorporates remaining years of the forecast are also lower <br /> updated data on transportation transactions than in the prior forecast. Overall, total gross <br /> used for the purpose of estimating the revenues are expected to grow at an average <br /> <br /> parameters of equations contained in the annual rate of 1.5 percent between FY09 and <br /> forecast model. Second, it integrates the most FY15, a rate that is significantly lower to our <br /> recent revisions to the state economic outlook. prior revenue projection of 2.3 percent over <br /> Third, the forecast takes into account changes the same period. <br /> in the national macroeconomic outlook that <br /> affect transportation revenues, but may not be Figure 7: Total Gross Highway Fund <br /> directly captured in the state forecast. And Revenues <br /> fourth, incorporating the effective <br /> implementation of new legislation can o 10°'° <br /> ° <br /> account for differences, as well. ~ 5°;° <br /> N <br /> N <br /> 3% <br /> Figure 7 shows the recent behavior of gross ~ $1.000 <br /> revenues and the current forecast out to 2015. ~ $950 -3°% <br /> The past several forecasts have reflected the 3 $900 -5°'° <br /> impacts of OTIA III (House Bill 2041) and $850 <br /> N $800 <br /> other legislative initiatives passed in the 2003 $750 <br /> Regular Legislative Session. Most of the ~ ~~00 <br /> 2000 2005 2010 2015 <br /> implementation of this legislation commenced <br /> in January 2004, and the effects were fully Fiscal Year <br /> Total Gross Highway Fund Revenues Percentage Change <br /> registered at the start of FY05, as reflected by <br /> <br /> the comparatively pronounced jump in <br /> revenues for that year. Thereafter, revenue <br /> 12 <br /> <br />