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removing the typical ups and downs that are the first several quarters. In some cases, the <br /> common in the DMV data series over each fee increases have had a lasting impact on <br /> <br /> year. The December 2007 forecast began in transactions. This effect is seen most notably <br /> July of 2007 and the June 2008 forecast in some of the title transactions and <br /> begins in April of 2008. Note that in January commercial licenses. It may well be, for <br /> of 2008 there is a big spike in issuances instance, that some individuals have had <br /> followed by a rapid drop. This reflects the secondary vehicles or commercial licenses <br /> rush to obtain an ID Card prior to the that were not being used, and therefore they <br /> <br /> temporary rule taking effect and the decided it is not worth paying the increased <br /> subsequent drop once the rule was in place. fee for something that they are unlikely to use <br /> in t e near uture. <br /> Figure 6: Original ID Card Transactions <br /> The reduced volume of transactions generally <br /> 7,2°°- occurs where the percent changes in fees are <br /> 6,800- Dec. 07 forecast June 08 forecast the greatest or where the fees represent a <br /> begins July 07 begins April 08 ~ <br /> o 6,4°° - larger share of the value of the vehicle. As we <br /> U <br /> 6,°°° - move further away from 2004, the fee change <br /> 5,6°°- impact tends to diminish or becomes difficult <br /> 0 5,z°° - to discern from other impacts in the models. <br /> ~ 4,800 - <br /> c <br /> 4,4°° - Overall, demographic and economic changes, <br /> 4'°°° - combined with legislative impacts, explain <br /> 3,600 - <br /> Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 most Of the variation In total DMV <br /> -Original ID Card Transactions (Dec. 07 forecast) transactions over tlme. Total DMV <br /> -Original ID Card Transactions (June 08 forecast) transactions increased in FY07 and are <br /> expected to average slight growth of 0.7 <br /> The other le islative chan e that can affect an percent throughout the forecast period. <br /> g g However future le islation will undoubtedl <br /> individual's choice to use a DMV service is ~ g y <br /> <br /> the rice. The OTIA III le islation assed affect the DMV transactions forecast and <br /> p g p resultin revenues. <br /> during the 2003 session increased fees fora g <br /> number of DMV activities. How the fee <br /> increases affect Oregonians' willingness to <br /> <br /> pay for the same activities is an important <br /> consideration for future legislation. With four <br /> <br /> years of data since implementation of the <br /> OTIA III fee increases, a surprising result is <br /> <br /> the persistent impact the fee increases have <br /> had on demand for DMV services. We <br /> expected demand to be reduced for a few <br /> quarters after implementation of the fee <br /> increases, and then once individuals became <br /> accustomed to the new fees they would adjust <br /> <br /> their budgets to accommodate the increased <br /> fees and demand would adjust upwards. <br /> While this has been true for some <br /> <br /> transactions, others have shown a significant <br /> decrease related to the fee increases beyond <br /> 11 <br /> <br />