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June_2008_Forecast - Kavanaugh
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June_2008_Forecast - Kavanaugh
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Last modified
5/28/2010 12:53:16 PM
Creation date
10/31/2008 11:17:24 AM
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Template:
PW_Operating
PW_Document_Type_ Operating
Reports
Fiscal_Year
2009
PW_Division
Administration
GL_Fund
131
GL_ORG
8910
Identification_Number
06-08 Kavanaugh Rpt
External_View
No
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Figure 5: Weight-mile Transactions readily evident in many of the DMV data <br /> series. In our current economic climate, as the <br /> 12°'° components of economic growth slow down <br /> there is an effect on DMV transactions. <br /> 22 - ~ However, DMV activities are in general more <br /> 20- 4°'° ~ strongly affected by demographic changes <br /> o% ~ rather than by economic changes, and so they <br /> L <br /> 1$ - ~ are somewhat more immune to cyclical <br /> 16 - -4% m . <br /> swings typical with economic variables. <br /> ~ 14- <br /> 12 _ Due to the stabilizing effect of demographics <br /> 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 on DMV activities, legislative changes are <br /> Fiscal Year easily noticeable in the different DMV series. <br /> ~ Weight-mile Transactions ~ Percentage Change The most recent and readily apparent change <br /> is the temporary rule implemented on <br /> Other sources of heav vehicle revenues to February 4, 2008 and subsequent passage of <br /> • y SB 10804. The tem orar rule re uires <br /> the State Highway Fund include heavy p y q <br /> <br /> vehicle re istrations, ermits and asses, applicants that desire to obtain, renew, or <br /> g A A re lace a driver license ermit or ID Card to <br /> Road Use Assessment Fees (RUAF), and p , ~ p <br /> other fees aid b motor carriers. The current provide proof of identity along with a valid <br /> p y Social Securit Number. If an individual does <br /> forecast methodology involves estimating the y <br /> revenues of each of the lar est com onents not have a verifiable SSN, certain other <br /> g p documents can be used in its stead. SB 1080 <br /> separately. Discussion of these revenue <br /> forecasts a ears in the Hi hwa Fund adds a legal presence requirement to the rule, <br /> pp g y kee in the SSN and identit re uirements <br /> Revenue Forecast section below. p g y q <br /> intact. Prior to implementation of the <br /> temporary rule, individuals could obtain a <br /> Driver and Mofor Vehicles driver license, permit, or ID Card easier as the <br /> documentation requirements were much less <br /> strict. <br /> The Driver and Motor Vehicles Division <br /> (DMV) is responsible for administration of In the month rior to the tem orar rule <br /> ri r n m r hi l r l 1 11 p p y <br /> d ve a d oto ve c e e ated act v t es. talon effect, issuance and renewal rates of <br /> R n 11 frm h f hr fr g <br /> eve ues co ected o t e ees c a ged o driver licenses and ID Cards were hi her than <br /> h ri DM 111 fl h g <br /> t e va ous V act v t es ow to t e State normal. Since that time issuance and renewal <br /> Highway Fund, the Transportation Operating rates have dro ed as individuals who would <br /> F n h Tr n r i n f A n h pp <br /> u d, t e a spo tat o Sa ety ccou t, t e have been eli ible to receive a license or ID <br /> El rl n Di 1 i 1 Tr n i n g <br /> de y a d sab ed Spec a a sportat o Card are no ion er able to do so. <br /> g <br /> Fund, and apportionments to cities and <br /> counties statewide for road repair, Figure 6 compares the December 2007 <br /> maintenance and construction. forecast to the current forecast through <br /> • calendar year 2008 for issuance of a photo ID <br /> DMV activities are affected by various Card. The values are seasonall ad'usted, <br /> y ~ <br /> economic and demographic variables and <br /> provide a reflection of some very broad 4 SB 1080 assed in the 2008 S ecial Session re uires <br /> undercurrents in the state. The im acts of p p q <br /> p proof of legal presence in the U.S. along with a Social <br /> changes in population, employment, Security number or proof of ineligibility for a Social <br /> migration, and economic production are Security number. The law becomes effective July 1, <br /> 2008. <br /> 10 <br /> <br />
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