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HIGHWAY FUND REVENUE FORECAST <br /> Overall, the current State Highway Fund demographic trends of the state, in lieu of any <br /> revenue forecast is lower than the previous new revenue initiatives by the Legislature. <br /> forecast. DMV revenues, which are driven <br /> largely by demographic changes, took the The current outlook forecasts that gross <br /> smallest hit, being reduced by less than $3 revenues will be lower than the prior forecast. <br /> million each year of the forecast period. The For FY08 and FY09, revenues are expected to <br /> slowing national and Oregon economies have be $15.8 million and $45.7 million lower than <br /> greater impacts on Motor Carrier and Motor in the prior forecast, respectively. On an <br /> Fuels revenues. The forecast of Motor Carrier average annual basis, this difference translates <br /> revenues is reduced between $4 and $26 into a 3.3 percent decrease from the prior <br /> million per year throughout the forecast forecast. The remaining years of the forecast <br /> <br /> period. The outlook for Motor Fuels revenues are also lower than in the prior forecast. <br /> is similar, with reductions of $3 to $25 Overall, total gross revenues are expected to <br /> million from previously forecast levels. grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent <br /> between FY08 and FY13, a rate that is not too <br /> Differences between the current and prior dissimilar to our prior revenue projection of <br /> forecast can originate from four primary 2.1 percent. <br /> sources. First, the forecast incorporates <br /> updated data on transportation transactions Figure 7: Total Gross Highway Fund <br /> used for the purpose of estimating the Revenues <br /> <br /> parameters of equations contained in the <br /> forecast model. Second, it integrates the most ~ 12% <br /> recent revisions to the state economic outlook. 8°% <br /> Third, the forecast takes into account changes ~ $1,100 4oo <br /> in the national macroeconomic outlook that _o <br /> ~ ~ $1,000 polo ~ <br /> affect transportation revenues, but may not be <br /> directl ca tured in the state forecast. And ~ v $900 4~'° <br /> o <br /> y p <br /> L <br /> fourth, incorporating the effective ~ $800 <br /> 0 <br /> implementation of new legislation can $~0° <br /> 2000 2005 2010 2015 <br /> account for differences as well. <br /> Fiscal Year <br /> Figure 7 shows the recent behavior of gross 0 Total Gross Highway Fund Revenues ~ Percentage Change <br /> revenues and the current forecast out to 2015. <br /> The past several forecasts have reflected the This growth in nominal revenues is, however, <br /> impacts of OTIA III (House Bill 2041) and below the expected rate of cost escalation for <br /> other legislative initiatives passed in the 2003 construction and maintenance activities <br /> Regular Legislative Session. Most of the confronting the Agency's Highway Programs. <br /> implementation of this legislation commenced As a result, the spending power of the State <br /> in January 2004, and the effects were fully Highway Fund to support Maintenance, <br /> felt starting in FY05, as reflected by the Preservation, and Modernization Programs <br /> comparatively pronounced jump in revenues will continue to erode. <br /> for that year. Thereafter, revenue trends <br /> converge more toward the economic and Compared to the previous forecast, revenues <br /> available for apportionment after collection, <br /> 12 <br /> <br />