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statistical significance and may not be tax applies to trucks with a gross weight over definitive. In the meantime, some simulated 26,000 pounds. Generally, the tax paid by a alternative scenarios will have to suffice to motor carrier varies with the weight of the bound the probable outcome of HB 2210 vehicle, the number of miles traveled, and the implementation. Arange of fuel efficiency axle configuration. Certain qualifying motor losses of 2 to 10 percent was examined, carriers, such as those transporting logs, wood overlaid with the staggered phased-in chips, sand and gravel, may pay the highway implementation. The scenario adopted for this use tax based on a flat monthly fee. The forecast rests on the most reasonable weight-mile revenue and transaction totals assumption that there will be, on net, a 2 discussed in this report include this "flat-fee" percent decline in fuel efficiency with the new revenue as well as revenues from a small blend. In the event that fuel efficiency losses number of related fees. are greater than this baseline scenario, the positive revenue impact on the State Highway An estimate of weight-mile "transactions" Fund will be understated. As such, the provides the basis for the current forecast of forecast will turn out to be conservative and, weight-mile revenues. This methodology, also in essence, serve as a lower bound for the used for prior forecasts, constructs a measure motor fuels revenue prospects, all else equal. of weight-mile transactions by dividing weight-mile revenue by the tax rate paid by Against these economic and current law the typical heavy vehicle. The forecasting backdrops, the outlook for consumption to model incorporates several employment grow at a somewhat steady annual average measures, as well as real fuel prices to rate of 2.2 percent once the dip in 2008-2009 estimate weight-mile transactions. is behind us. This is about the same as prior forecast once Oregon and the nation climbs As Figure 5 illustrates, the number of weight- back on their respective growth paths. A mile transactions grew quite strongly between large part of this rebound stems from the FY03 and FY06, averaging about 4.2 percent impacts from HB 2210 on passenger vehicle annual growth. However, slight declines of fuel efficiency. less than 1.0 percent occurred during both FY07 and FY08. The primary causes of these declines include high fuel prices, a struggling Mofor Carrier national economy, and a reduction in Oregon durable goods manufacturing employment. Truckin activit and the frei ht industr The forecast anticipates a return to positive g y g y rowth in wei ht-mile transactions in FY10 affect the amount of revenue available to the g g State Hi hwa Fund throu h the wei ht-mile as real gasoline prices slowly decline from the g y g g current hi h levels and Ore on em to ment tax, heavy vehicle registration fees, and other g g , p Y Motor Carrier fees. Chan es in economic in durable goods manufacturing begins to g rebound. Overall an avera e annual rowth conditions within Oregon and the nation as a ~ g g whole influence each of these revenue rate of 3.9 percent is expected between FY10 sources. Because man as ects of the national and FY15. y p and state economies are predicted to weaken during the next few years, the forecast of Motor Carrier revenues reflects similar softness. The weight-mile tax is the largest source of trucking-related revenue. This highway use 9