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OREGON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK <br /> Growth in Oregon's job markets began to Figure 1: Oregon and U.S. Employment <br /> slow in the second quarter of 2007. Beginning Trends <br /> in the second quarter of 2008 Oregon has <br /> experienced negative job growth ending 6°'° <br /> Oregon's streak of 19 consecutive quarters of 4°% <br /> <br /> job gains. Although job growth for the first ~ 2°,° <br /> quarter of 2008 came in at a 1.5 percent ~ 2 0 <br /> rt <br /> o°r° <br /> annual rate, the second quarter lost jobs at a ~ 18 <br /> 1.7 percent annual rate, more than negating a -2°'° <br /> . w 1.6 m <br /> the gain m the first quarter. The third quarter <br /> <br /> job losses were at a 0.9 percent annual rate. 1.4 <br /> However, on average Total Non-Farm 1.2 <br /> 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 <br /> Employment for 2008 is expected to be <br /> Oregon Employment Oregon -Percentage Change <br /> comparable to 2007. In 2009 the employment ~ S. -Percentage Change <br /> picture is expected to worsen as the economy <br /> continues to slide deeper into a recession. Ore on's manufacturin sector continues to <br /> Em to ment rowth is ex ected to be g g <br /> p . y g p shrink, with a decline of 9.7 percent (annual <br /> negative through the third quarter of 2009, rate Burin the third uarter of 2008. <br /> • ) g q <br /> growing slowly from there. Durable oods manufacturin which <br /> g g~ <br /> Historicall avera e em to ment rowth in represents over 70 percent of all <br /> y' g p y g manufacturin in Ore on declined at a rate of <br /> Oregon is stronger than in the U.S. The g g ' <br /> exce tions usuall occur Burin recessionar 7.7 percent in the third quarter. While Metals <br /> p y g y & Machine showed a 1.7 ercent increase <br /> conditions, where Oregon's particular p <br /> industr mix can lead to reater em to ment in ~ obs during the third quarter of 2008, <br /> y g p y hel ed b ex andin ex orts other durable <br /> declines compared to the U.S. as a whole. p y p , g p ' . . <br /> While both the U.S. and Ore on are ex ected goods manufacturing industries did not <br /> g p erform as well. Em to ment in Com uters <br /> to experience anemic growth in total p p y p <br /> em to ment Burin 2008 on a ercenta e & Electronics, fell 7.6 percent, mild <br /> p y g p g com ared to the 22.4 ercent dro in <br /> basis, Oregon is expected to shed more j obs in p p p <br /> relative terms for 2009 than the U.S. as the Transportation Equipment employment, <br /> recessionar conditions eak. However and a 17.1 percent drop in Other Durable <br /> y p Goods em to ment. Non-durable <br /> Oregon's employment growth is expected to p y <br /> out ace the national avera e throu bout the manufacturing, led by the state's food <br /> p g g manufacturin sector ex erienced si nificant <br /> remainder of the forecast period. An average g p g <br /> annual rowth rate of 1.8 ercent is ex ected employment losses in the third quarter of <br /> g p p 2008 decreasin 14.7 ercent with Food <br /> for Oregon between 2010 and 2015, while g p ' <br /> national em to ment is ex ected to row at Manufacturing declining 22.4 percent. <br /> p y p g Goin forward ' ob levels for the state's <br /> <br /> just 1.4 percent during the same period. g ~ <br /> manufacturing sector as a whole are expected <br /> A more detailed look at s ecific Ore on to continue declining but a decelerated rate <br /> p g <br /> industr rowth can hel shed li ht on where through the first half of 2010 when the sector <br /> yg p g <br /> the stren the and weaknesses are currentl , is expected to rebound with strong growth <br /> g y <br /> and what the outlook is for these sectors. through the first quarter of 2012. Growth is <br /> 3 <br /> <br />