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expected to level off through the remainder of 0.7 percent in 2008. The forecast predicts <br /> <br /> the forecast period. Average annual growth of personal income growth of 0.9 percent for <br /> approximately 1.3 percent is anticipated for Oregon in 2009 and 1.25 percent for the <br /> <br /> the period covering 2010 through 2015. nation during 2009. Beyond 2009, growth is <br /> expected t0 rise sharply. Oregon's growth in <br /> Generally, the non-manufacturing sector has real personal income will surpass the nations <br /> <br /> performed better in recent quarters than the for the forecast period, averaging 3.4 percent <br /> manufacturing sector, although growth is annually compared to the nation's 3.1 percent <br /> expected t0 be flat in 2008 and negative in from 2010 through 2015. <br /> 2009. Overall, private non-manufacturing <br /> employment declined 1.4 percent during the Figure 2: Oregon and U.S. Real Personal <br /> <br /> third quarter of 2008. An employment Income Growth Trends <br /> decline, but much less compared to the <br /> manufacturing sector. Educational & Health 7°'° <br /> Services along with Leisure & Hospitality 6°% <br /> Services both posed employment gains of 8.2 <br /> 5% 3 <br /> and 1.0 percent, respectively. Professional & <br /> ~ 4% ~ <br /> Business Services, Trade, Trans ortation ~ ° ~ ~ : <br /> p s r° <br /> . ~ <br /> & Utilities and the Information sectors all <br /> ~ 2% <br /> declined at about a 3.0 percent rate a <br /> ° <br /> annualized. As ex ected 'ob losses in the 1 ~ ti <br /> p J <br /> ° <br /> Financial Activities sector were larger at 5.7 ° <br /> <br /> percent. The third quarter saw acontinued ~ ~ ~ <br /> 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 <br /> deterioration Of the Natural Resources & <br /> Oregon Real Personal Income Growth <br /> Mining sector, falling 5.3 percent. ALSO the - U S. Real Personal Income Growth <br /> Construction industry continued to be hit <br /> hard by the housing downturn with <br /> In sum, Oregon s economy is expected to <br /> employment declining at a 10.1 percent <br /> continue shrinking throughout 2009 as <br /> annual rate. Overall, the forecast for non- . . <br /> national and state economic conditions <br /> manufacturing fobs predicts a rather subdued <br /> worsen, and t0 recover slowly into 2010 as <br /> rate Of growth that averages dust 2.2 percent <br /> credit markets thaw and the housing market <br /> <br /> throughout the forecast horizon covering 2010 <br /> corrects. Beyond 2010 moderate growth is <br /> <br /> through 2015. <br /> expected as consumers begin spending again <br /> Althou h em to ment rowth has been although at more subdues rates, and global <br /> g p y g ex ansion increases the demand for Ore On <br /> negative in recent quarters, Oregon personal p g <br /> income has demonstrated continued ains. commodities and manufactured goods. <br /> g However there are some notable risks to <br /> Personal income, about 55 percent of which is ' <br /> derived from wa es and salaries increased growth. A stronger dollar could lessen <br /> g demand for Ore on oods as the become <br /> 6.1 percent in 2007 and is expected t0 grow g g y <br /> b 4.0 ercent in 2008. when ad'usted for more expensive overseas. Geopolitical risks <br /> y p ~ could cause a s ike in fuel rices and a <br /> inflation, this increase translates into a 3.4 p p <br /> ercent Chan e in real ersonal income for decline m consumer confidence, leading to a <br /> <br /> p g p decline in dis Osable incomes and s endin . <br /> Oregonians in 2007, and 0.3 percent in 2008. p p g <br /> As shown in Fi ure 2 this rowth rate mirrors All of these negatively effect growth. A <br /> • g ~ g summar Of economic indicators for Ore On <br /> <br /> than the nations real growth in personal Y g <br /> income of 3.4 ercent in 2007 and is ex ected is contained m Table 2 below. <br /> p p <br /> <br /> to be slightly lower than the national rate of <br /> 4 <br /> <br />