ODOT_December_2008_Forecast - Laserfiche WebLink

New Search

A statistical analysis would be of considerable during the next few years, the forecast of utility in this regard, but the necessary data Motor Carrier revenues reflects similar will not be available until well into calendar softness. year 2009. Even then, the findings may lack statistical significance and may not be The weight-mile tax is the largest source of definitive. In the meantime, some simulated trucking-related revenue. This highway use alternative scenarios will have to suffice to tax applies to trucks with a gross weight over provide some bounds for the probable 26,000 pounds. Generally, the tax paid by a outcome of HB 2210 implementation. A motor carrier varies with the weight of the range of fuel efficiency losses of 2 to 10 vehicle, the number of miles traveled, and the percent was examined, overlaid with the axle configuration. Certain qualifying motor staggered phased-in implementation. The carriers, such as those transporting logs, wood scenario adopted for this forecast rests on the chips, sand and gravel, may pay the highway most reasonable assumption that there will be, use tax based on a flat monthly fee. The on net, a 2 percent decline in fuel efficiency weight-mile revenue and transaction totals with the new blend. In the event that fuel discussed in this report include this "flat-fee" efficiency losses are greater than this baseline revenue as well as revenues from a small scenario, the positive revenue impact on the number oftrip-related fees. State Highway Fund will be understated. As such, the forecast will turn out to be An estimate of weight-mile "transactions" conservative and, in essence, serve as a lower provides the basis for the current forecast of bound for the motor fuels revenue prospects, weight-mile revenues. This methodology, also all else equal. used for prior forecasts, constructs a measure of weight-mile transactions by normalizing Against these economic and current law revenue by the tax rate paid by the typical backdrops, the outlook is for consumption to heavy vehicle. The forecasting model grow at a somewhat steady annual average incorporates several employment measures, as rate of 2.4 percent once the dip in 2008-2009 well as real fuel prices to estimate weight- is behind us. This is about the same as prior mile transactions. forecast once Oregon and the nation climbs back on their respective growth paths. A As Figure 5 illustrates, the number of weight- large part of this rebound stems from the mile transactions grew strongly between impacts from HB 2210 on passenger vehicle CY03 and CY05, averaging about 5.9 percent fuel efficiency. annual growth. Following these years of strong growth, CY06 and CY07 were much more mild, averaging only about 1.0 percent. Mofor Carrier CY08 is expected to end with a strong decline in excess of 5 percent and virtually no growth Tr kin 1 1 n h fr i h in r in CY09. The primary causes of the declines uc g act v ty a d t e e g t dusty ff h m n f r n it 1 h include high fuel prices, the national economy a ect t e a ou t o eve ue ava ab e to t o Hi h F n hr h h i h -mil moving into recession, and a reduction in State g way u d t oug t o we g t e x h hi l r i r i n f n h r Oregon durable goods manufacturing and to , eavy ve c e eg st at o ees, a d of e M r rri r f h n in n mi construction employment. The forecast oto Ca e ees. C a ges eco o c . . n i i n i hin r n n h n i n anticipates a return to strong positive growth co d t o s w t 0 ego a d t e at o as a h 1 infl n h f h r n in weight-mile transactions in CY 10 as the woe ue ce eac o t ese eve ue national econom recovers and Ore on sources. Because many aspects of the national y g n n mi r r i k n employment begins to rebound. Beyond 2010 a d state eco o es a e p ed cted to wea e growth is expected to be a bit more tepid 9