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fees on certain transaction types by up to $3 has also served to decrease the variation from <br /> to cover the cost of implementing the one forecast to the next when exogenous <br /> legislation. If the fees do increase by $3, conditions are largely invariant, which is not <br /> revenues could increase by over $2 million this case this time. With so much uncertainty <br /> beginning in FY09. However, these potential, in the economy and in particular fuel prices, <br /> additional revenues are not included in the the forecast errors are somewhat more <br /> current forecast. pronounced than in previous forecasts. <br /> <br /> Net DMV revenues, as represented in row 14, The DMV revenue forecast is grouped into <br /> are expected to show a sudden drop in FY08 three major categories reflecting the primary <br /> and continue to decline through FY10 as costs revenue sources: vehicle registrations, driver <br /> increase at a quicker pace than revenues under licenses, and vehicle titles. Vehicle <br /> existing fee levels. In FY12, and in each registrations make up the dominant portion of <br /> successive biennium net revenues are DMV revenues, led significantly by <br /> expected to decline in the first year but grow passenger vehicle registrations, which alone <br /> in the second as revenue growth catches up to account for 80 percent of vehicle registration <br /> costs. revenues and 40 percent of total DMV <br /> revenues. Registration revenues, as reported <br /> Rows 5 and 15 summarize the change in gross in row 1 of Table 4, totaled $111.5 million in <br /> (row 5) and net (row 15) revenues from the FY07, a decrease of 1.5 percent over FY06. <br /> previous forecast. In row 5, the fiscal year FY08 revenues are expected to be $112.6 <br /> revenues are lower than the previous forecast. million, an increase of 1.0 percent over FY07. <br /> The primary cause for this decrease is passage Beyond FY07, growth is expected to average <br /> of SB 1080 and implementation of the related 1.6 percent throughout the forecast period. <br /> temporary rule. These laws have led to a <br /> decrease in driver license applications and Figure 9: Passenger Vehicle Registration <br /> renewals, along with a decline in used vehicle Revenues <br /> sales and subsequent title transfers. <br /> 50% <br /> Row 15 shows a net revenue decline from the 3 40°'° <br /> > 30% <br /> prior forecast. There are two main reasons for ~ 200,° <br /> o <br /> o ~ <br /> this decline. The first is that gross revenues ~ ~ $120- 1°% <br /> rt <br /> are down as discussed above, and that carries ~ ~ $1°°- <br /> . ~ ~ -10% m <br /> through to net revenues. The second reason is v <br /> that collection costs and the central services ~ 60_ <br /> a <br /> assessment are around seven million dollars ~ $ <br /> $40 - <br /> greater than in the previous forecast for the 2°°° 2°05 2010 2015 <br /> 2009-11 and 2011-13 biennia. This big Fiscal Year <br /> increase is the main driver for the large ~PassengerVehicleRegistrationRevenues ~PercentageChange <br /> decline in 2009-11 and 2011-13 net revenues. <br /> Continued refinements in the estimatin Driver licenses include commercial and non- <br /> g commercial licenses ermits and related <br /> equations have increased the overall accuracy ~ p <br /> of our DMV forecasts both individuall and tests. Revenues, as shown in row 2, totaled <br /> ' y 33.6 million in FY07 a decrease of 1.3 <br /> collectivel .For exam le the forecast for $ <br /> y p ' ercent over FY06. The FY08 revenues are <br /> passenger vehicle registrations is only .04 p <br /> ercent different than the actual re istrations expected to be $32.1 million, a 4.5 percent <br /> p g decrease over FY07. Revenue rowth in the <br /> for the first five months of 2008. This work g <br /> 14 <br /> <br />