June_2008_Forecast - Kavanaugh - Laserfiche WebLink

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Table 1: National Economy, Percentage Change in Key Variables Actual Forecast CY CY CY CY CY CY CY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CONSUMER PRICE MEX (CPI) 3.2% 2.9% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% EMPLOYMENT 1.8% l.l% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% HOUSING STARTS -12.6% -25.8% -32.2% 24.1% 27.7% 15.2% 2.8% POPULATION 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 1.7% 3.0% 3.3% 2.9% REAL PERSONAL INCOME 3.8% 3.5% 1.2% 1.8% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% REAL PRICE OF GASOLINE 10.1% 6.0% 8.2% -9.2% -4.6% -4.5% -2.8% UNIT SALES OF NEW AUTOMOBILES 1.5% -2.4% -7.2% 0.4% 5.4% 5.5% 4.9% Table 2: Oregon Economy, Percentage Change in Key Variables Actual Forecast CY CY CY CY CY CY CY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 EMPLOYMENT--TOTAL 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% EMPLOYMENT--HIGH TECHNOLOGY MFG. 1.5% -3.2% -3.1% -2.1% l.l% 3.7% -1.8% EMPLOYMENT--RETAIL TRADE 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% l.l% 1.9% l.l% 1.7% EMPLOYMENT--TRANSPORTATION 2.0% 0.5% -1.7% -0.1% 2.7% 3.4% 3.1% EMPLOYMENT--WHOLESALE TRADE 2.6% 0.7% -0.4% 0.0% 1.3% 1.8% 1.5% EMPLOYMENT--WOOD PRODUCTS -0.8% -8.0% -5.6% -1.7% 3.8% 0.9% 1.5% HOUSING STARTS -10.8% -20.5% -39.4% 12.6% 23.7% 12.8% 8.2% POPULATION 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% PORTLAND METRO CONSUMER PRICE MEX 2.6% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% REAL PERSONAL INCOME 4.4% 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% TIMBER HARVEST -2.4% -3.5% -7.3% -1.3% 1.6% 2.4% 0.0% Table 3: Percentage Change in Transactions for Key Transportation Variables Actual Forecast CY CY CY CY CY CY CY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MOTOR VEHICLE FUELS (GALLONS) 1.7% -0.1% -0.5% -0.4% 4.3% 3.5% 2.8% ORIGINAL CLASS C LICENSES 2.4% -1.2% -5.0% -1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.3% PASSENGER VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS 0.8% -1.9% 2.9% l.l% 2.5% l.l% 2.5% TITLE TRANSFERS -2.6% -2.5% -4.8% 4.6% -3.7% -3.8% 1.2% TRUCKING ACTIVITY (WEIGHT-MILE) 2.5% -0.4% -0.2% -2.0% 0.4% 8.5% 4.4% 5