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,` , .. _ , . ' <br />~ Peak hour forecasts for aircraft operations will also be developed. <br />AvPlan anticipates development of an unconstrained projection usmg <br />: standard forecasting methodologies such as share of the market, <br />regression analysis, fime series analysis, and trend line analysis. A <br />~ single-line prefened forecast will be developed for all activity <br />, indicators. . <br />Two general methodologies will be euplored to project. future <br />' enplanement levels: <br />.:; Mahlon Sweet Field's historical and projected share of the U.S. <br />market will be examined through a comparison of historical and <br />expected growth rates for. each.: The U.S. forecast provides a <br />growth base reflecting how indust .ry traffic in general' is <br />anticipated to grow in .the future, considering factors such as <br />the economic ~ health of the nation, aviation industry trends and <br />health; and airline fuel and fare pricing trends. In the absence <br />of significant local influences, activity at individual airports is <br />expected to increase at a comparable rate, and indeed, this was <br />the experience of many aiFports m the more stable environment <br />~receding deregulation. In a deregulated environment, however, <br />~ . ~ ~udgments must be made to determine how and to~what extent <br />~ , an . airport's rate of growth will differ from that of the nation. <br />; Once a growth rate projection is developed, it can then be <br />reflected as an increase (or decrease) in that airport's share of <br />. the U.S. market. <br />. Quantitative modeling based on ~ the historical relationship <br />between local socioeconomic factors and Airport activity will be <br />used as a second approach. This approach:will provide a check <br />. on ~the reasonableness of the market share approach described <br />above, especially in the short term. <br />_ ° . Results of the forecast element will be used to determine future <br />_ needs for a variety of. airside and landside facilities as well as other <br />'~ support facilities at the Airport. ~ <br />Output: Results of Element 2 will be. summarized in the first working paper. <br />This draft report will include all appropriate graphs; charts, maps, <br />' • and drawings to document findings of the forecast analyses. <br />The forecast element will identify .not only base case demand but <br />also potential demand that may ` be . realized at the . Air~ort. <br />C~rrently, the Eugene market is being eroded by passengers dnving <br />' to other , regional markets to obtain scheduled air service. An <br />estimate of demand that can realistically be "recaptured" will be <br />- developed so that adequate flex can be included in identifying future <br />~ facility needs. . <br />. . . -8- ~ <br />. .. <br />, . ., ..:.. . . ,,.,, ~,~. ~ ..~... , _ _ ., .....H.. . t.. . . <br />- ._~_~._...,._.. .r~r._, ~ ~ ~ -.. <br />