The following tables are the result of a financial model that was constructed in an attempt to <br /> demonstrate the history of the fund and to determine what the future of the fund will be with or <br /> without a credit fee increase. There are several variables that comprise the model, however, the <br /> most important (and the one with the most uncertainty) is the demand for credits. If sales of <br /> credits remains constant, then our ability to make financial predictions is fairly good. However, if <br /> credit sales fluctuate, then the mitigation bank operations will need to be adjusted appropriately. <br /> For example, a large project in one year could consume- all of the available credits. This would <br /> require the bank to increase the number of acres that are being restored to generate credits and <br /> thereby require a much larger budget the following year to carry out the increase in restoration. <br /> The opposite is also true: if credit sales drop dramatically below the 8-credit per year average, <br /> then field operations may need to be curtailed if the bank fund managers feel that the trend will <br /> continue. Therefore, bank fund managers should consider this dynamic link when viewing the <br /> tables and realize that any number of variables could cause a change in projected fund balances. It <br /> is recommended that this model be updated annually to reflect actual revenues and expenses. <br /> The cost per credit or credit fee is an equally important variable. This will be discussed in more <br /> detail in the next section and in the recommendations section at the end of this paper. <br /> Interpretation of the Model: <br /> There are two tables that follow that reflect two different scenarios. The first is status quo with <br /> no change in credit fees (i.e. credits are currently $30,000). The second table demonstrates the <br /> changes associated with an increase in the price per credit to $45,000 (as recommended in the <br /> final section at the end of this paper). <br /> Table 1 <br /> The first version of the model assumes the current fee and current spending levels. At this rate, <br /> the bank fund is depleted by FY09 assuming all other factors are consistent. This suggests that a <br /> change is in order to keep the fund healthy. <br /> Table 2 <br /> This version depicts the seven year forecast with a rate increase as proposed in the conclusions <br /> and recommendations. The new fee would be $45,000 per credit which would allow the City to <br /> more closely recover the costs of generating a mitigation credit. This recommended fee is closer <br /> to the rate charged by the State for the revolving fund (which is a fund that the State allows some <br /> developers to pay into for their mitigation needs when a bank is not available and on site <br /> mitigation is not possible). The State used a 1994 .study (appendix C) which estimated the cost of <br /> restoration as a factor in determining their rate. With this increase, the financial projections show <br /> that the bank may be able to maintain sufficient funds through FY09 if the demand for credit stays <br /> constant. In this case, "sufficient funds" is defined as a stable base amount that would allow for 5 <br /> years of O&M responsibilities if the bank were to cease credit sales. <br /> The effects of a rate increase on demand for credits is unknown at this time. Since mitigation <br /> banking is relatively new, it is difficult to predict how the market will react to a price increase. <br /> <br /> Developers have the option of doing their own mitigation in certain cases but the costs and time <br /> <br />